"Over the next 12 days it wandered across the Atlantic, mostly as a tropical storm, until it reached near the Bahamas where it blossomed into the monster Category 5 hurricane", Lushine said.
New named storms have formed far out over the Atlantic and Pacific, though neither poses a threat to land. After that, cooler waters and higher wind shear will likely force it to become post tropical. Eventually, the track of Ernesto will take it near Ireland and Scotland this weekend. Whereas a tropical storm may have its strongest winds at its center, a sub tropical storm can have its strongest winds further out. Also, subtropical storms are cold-core weather systems, while tropical storms and hurricanes are warm-core. This was the case when Beryl reformed as a subtropical storm south of Bermuda in July.
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The possibility for Ernesto comes less than a week after the Climate Prediction Center reduced its forecast to reflect a below average hurricane season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration revised its hurricane season forecast earlier this month, advising people that the Atlantic hurricane season will be less active than usual. With the dust contributing drier air into parts of the atmosphere, that's not a good thing when it comes to a tropical wave looking to develop.
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