U.S, China trade dispute puts oil prices on edge

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Though topsy-turvy ride in crude prices is expected to continue, but overall they are likely to trade below the crucial resistance of $73 per barrel and Rs.4950 per barrel level and seem primed to tread lower. 2018 is expected to be the fourth hottest year on record, only exceeded by the three previous years.

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) came under renewed selling pressure in the European session, as the bears regained poise amid negative sentiment on the European equities, with Turkey fears still weighing on the risk assets.

The report said, however, that "if any unexpected supply outages should occur due to natural disasters/technical shortcomings and these coincide with any geopolitical supply disruption, it could bring the market into an imbalanced situation".

Along with this, USA production last week has risen to record levels of 11 million bpd mark, very close to Saudi Arabia and Russia's production levels. Acute concerns about supply shortages no longer dominate the headlines.

Oil dropped as economic turbulence in Turkey and the strengthening greenback heightened concerns about global oil demand.

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Prices are essentially marching to the US President Trump's actions, which are exerting a major clout over oil markets.

But the slowing of demand can't simply be chalked up to statistical idiosyncrasies. "But the impact on investment mood is starting to show", Brown said. In the USA, demand growth halved from the first to second quarter of this year.

China has not been importing US crude lately because of the US-China trade war.

Still, the "cool down" period might only be short lived, the IEA warned, and as summer draws to a close, things could get much hotter in the oil market.

The United States will seek to block Iran's worldwide oil sales from November 5, when the second phase of sanctions are reimposed as part of Washington's withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal.

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Shipping data suggests July oil imports into China, India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan were around 19 million bpd. The second round of sanctions, which is going to focus on the energy sector, will have a much higher impact than the current round.

More specifically, analysts are converging on a range of between 700,000 bpd to 1 mb/d of disrupted Iranian supply, give or take. The ongoing war of words between the USA and Iran remaining center stage.

Trump's move to withdraw the United States from a landmark nuclear deal with Iran and reimpose sanctions on the country has already pushed oil prices above $78 a barrel for the first time since late 2014.

"With U.S. sanctions on Iran back in place ... maintaining global supply might be very challenging", ANZ bank said on Monday, although it added that "the U.S.is doing its bit to increase production, with data showing drilling activity is continuing to rise".

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The lira fell as much as 18 per cent against the dollar in its worst day since Turkey's financial crisis of 2001. The lira's relentless depreciation drives up the cost of imported goods from fuel to food for ordinary Turks.

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